Updated daily
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Daily new estimated infections of COVID-19, United States

Mean estimates from epidemiological models of the true number of infections. Estimates differ because the models differ in data used and assumptions made. For
comparison, confirmed cases are infections that have been confirmed with a test.

Mar 1, 2020Nov 17, 2021Aug 8, 2020Nov 16, 2020Feb 24, 2021Jun 4, 2021IHME (mean)YYG (mean)LSHTM (median)Confirmed casesICL (mean)
OurWorldInData.org/covid-models •

Source: ICL (2021), IHME (2021), YYG (2020), LSHTM (2020), JHU (2020)

Note: This chart shows the latest available model estimates as of 10 November 2021. The LSHTM and YYG models have stopped releasing updates. The uncertainty range for each estimate — which can
be large — is not shown here but can be found in the individual model charts.

Jan 10, 2020
Nov 17, 2021
Related: How are COVID-19 models used to estimate the true number of infections?

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